I usually try to avoid politics on this site since everyone is talking politics these days. The main reason I started this blog is to provide an alternative to what everyone is writing about online these days. For Zimbabwe politics news there are unlimited sources like newzimbabwe.com, zimdaily.com, The Herald, Sunday Mail, Fingaz etc. The reason I decided to comment on this issue is because of a readers comment who asked me what I had to say about the Mutambara and MDC issue. I was privileged to attend the same high schools as both Mugabe and Mutambara. I attended Kutama College for the first four years of high school and Mugabe would make regular appearances on campus. Mugabe's home is located just outside the Kutama College fence. I first heard of Arthur Mutambara when I was at Hartzell High. I was there for the last two years of my high schooling. Mutambara was long gone then but his legacy at the school still remained. Now back to the issue at hand. As far as I have researched Mutambara is an academic genius and has a very impressive academic resume. My honest opinion is he stands very little chance against Mugabe and his camp at this time. Politics in Zimbabwe is different is all I can say. Although well know in the Zimbabwean academic circles. Mutambara is virtually non-existent in certain parts of the country. Ask Sekuru Nzungu (fictional) in Dodito who Mutambara is and he will have absolutely no clue. The other problem is Mutambara is joining MDC at a time when the party is split. Support is divided between the two MDC factions and divided like this it will be next to impossible to tackle the giant ZANU PF. Again Mutambara is a well respected Zimbabwean but his move into politics may spoil his good name. Zimbos will expect change too fast and too soon. The state of the situation is Zimbabwe needs time to correct. Inflation is creeping towards 1000%, AIDS is killing millions, persistent droughts occur, the new farmers fail to produce, corruption is rampant, brain drain is at its worst.....Mutambara alone will not cure Zimbabwe's ailments. In conclusion in a theoretical Bob vs Mutambara showdown, Bob will emerge on top. Let me know what you think....
8 comments:
I beg to differ with this article and suggest that Mutambara has all the chances to be the next Zimbabwean president. The article is based on the assumption that Mugabe will run for president in 2008 or 2010 whichever is the case. But fact of the matter is Mugabe will retire in 2008.
The most likely candidates to succeed Mugabe, in the order of their chances, are Simba Makoni, John Nkomo, and Emmerson Mnangagwa. With the addition of the Morgan Tsvangirai into the fray things are going to be a little bit more exciting than the previous elections.
Given this scenario, Mutambara has equall chances to be the next president. Mugabe will have to do a good job campaigning for his successor and it will be a tough sale and with Mutambara being the main challenger, Mugabe will have to indirectly campaign for Mutambara. Why do I think Mutambara will be the main challenger? Mutambara will obviously have the support of the urban electorate. Tsangi is now discredited and the power balance between Mutambara and Tsvangi will shift in Mutambara's favor.
Notice I did not put foward Joyce Mujuru's name. This is not because Mujuru does not have the credentials to be president but rather she will present a major contitutional crisis within ZanuPF were she to run for president. ZanuPF constitution requires that one of the vice presidents be a woman, and further more, either of the vice presidents should represent either factions of the post-Unity Accord Agreement. Thus said, if Mujuru were to become president, Zanu will have to seek another women vice-president, most likely Thenjiwe Lesabe (PF Zapu). This will relegate John Nkomo who is more senior to Lesabe and the story goes on.
From my analysis the successors for mugabe will be either John Nkomo (Pres) with vices (Mujuru and Mutasa) or Simba Makoni (Pres) with vices (Mujuru and Nkomo). Mutambara will give any of these guys a run for their money.
Wil Majaji
I agree to Majaji to an extent. There is talk of Mugabe retiring in 2008, but on the other hand Mugabe recently stated he is the servant of the people and if called upon to serve another term he will likely do so. In that case Mutambara will have a difficult time defeating the old man. Even if Mugabe is not running in 2008, I guarantee you he will be fully behind the running ZANU PF candidate. What will happen is although he might no longer be president he will have full control of ZANU and Zimbabwe.
Dj swing, i guess you only looked at the academic side of Mutambara. Go mutambara is a natural born Charismatic leader. of course its the wrong time for him to get into politics with all the divisions in MDC and the economy almost non existent. My point is and will always be that Mutambara given the chance can make these Zanu Pf have sleepless nights just like the 2000 elections.
Jimo
I want to believe that Mutambara is there for ZANU PF as a compromise candidate. Knowing ZANU, there is a stratedy to get Mutambara in the mainstream as well seeing that there will be an amendment to te constitution of keeping seat after crossing floors. One of the 2 MDCs is pro ZANU and there will be a fusion at an appropriate time. All the noise with the west will die after the second or rather thrird unity accord.
It is quite likely that Tsvangirai will not be in the equation by the time of the next election. His only strategy is mass protests against the government. As we know, the government will not tolerate this. The protests will be ruthlessly crushed and will not succeed. This will leave Tsvangirai with nothing else to offer as he has rejected the ballot box as a route. I suspect that Mutambara might even manage to re-unite the two MDC factions before we get to that point.
And if Tsvangirai vanishes from the scene, his faction will disappear too, merging into Mutambara's which, by then, will have been strengthened by various heavyweights, including defectors from ZANU(PF). Mutambara is going to be helped by the fact that he is known by the US where he has an academic track record. This will make it difficult for ZANU(PF) to try and intimidate him.
Besides, a lot of ZANU(PF) officials, including ministers, privately do not support Mugabe. They do not want the direction in which the country is going, and quietly want a way out of the current desperate situation. Once Mugabe steps down, some of them will come out in the open in support of Mutambara.
Muzaya
I had to comment on the Mutambara thing. I wanted to say that, i agree to with you to a certain extent and that all Zim is in need of right now is some kinda of change and maybe Mutambara might not be able to bring what we expect nekukasika but at least it will bring change and some kind of saying things are changing in this way. Whereas now these people are not giving any kinda change at all. So this is what i think.. Oh and is he joining the MDC party, i did not know any kind of stuff was happening and this is why i am surprised, but then again i do not keep up with this stuff you know.
Kana muchifunga kuti ZANU (PF) inokwanisa kubviswa nemaelecttions Sorry maningi.Every sincere Zimbabwean knows that maelections anongobirwa so Mutambara or anyone for that matter kufunga kuti angawhine maelections kupenga.
Chinotodiwa kuteedzera zvakataurwa naTsvangirai kuti before tatanga kubvotomoka kuvanhu nezvemaelections, fundamental constitutional changes must be effected before tatanga kurota peaceful change especially through the ballot.Unowhina kuvhoterwa sei kana imwe party iine mabhesi emawar vet anotumwa kushungurudza vanhu.Unokwikwidza sei kana majudge achitora 5 years kupa mutongo weelection petition.Mugabe haachada zvemaelections anotoda force and frankly I don't see Mutambara achipisa chimoto because anaWelshman Ncube vaava kutamba navo ndizvo zvavakatiza kuMDC nokuti rightly they know kuti politics kwadzava kuenda kuchafa vanhu,that's why they are completely afraid of confronting the dictatorship.Kumaelections takabva nako panotodiwa mass resistance rather than kunyepera vanhu kuti Mugabe anobva nevhoti or kubviswa naana Mutambara vakatoneta kare nekutambisa zvimarhobhoti kuAmerica.Sorry maningi
All is possible Mutambara is a great candidate and I have been following him close as he is my only hope of a new and young Zimbabwe. Nevertheless, lately I have been troubled by his arrogance and it seems a bad time to join, but when is a good time ever going to come. We need to give him a chance and yes most of us will criticize from the safe locked doors of our homes but anyone who is doing something needs to be helped. Tanga tione
It is a shame that we need a rocket scientist to save Zimbabwe when America has a deadhead.
The above writer is very angry and that is why we will not progress because if I say what you do not like or do not agree with you, then we cannot sit and still talk. Lets agree to disagree why are we so quick to say Ngaaurayiye ,Ngaarovererwe pamuchinjikwa. What have we learnt since Judas and them gave the same verdict to Jesus of Nazareth or what did we learn from Rwanda. ZvechiHutsi Tutsi hatidi.
Shame all concerned ZANU,PAPU,Zapu,MDC1 or 2 Kana pandongapo lets talk or do what it takes to get there.
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